Lula Wins Brazil Presidency With 4.3 Million Vote Margin

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva secured a fourth term as president of Brazil on Sunday, winning 51.79% of the vote in a runoff that concluded shortly after midnight UK time.

The margin of victory was approximately 4.3 million votes among 159 million eligible voters, a narrow lead over far-right senator Flávio Bolsonaro, who received 48.21%.

The result represents a sharp reversal from the first round held earlier this month. In that initial ballot, Flávio Bolsonaro led with 56.1 million votes, or 47.03%, against Lula's 53.8 million, or 45.16%.

Since Brazil restored democracy in 1985, no candidate who finished second in the first round has ever won the final ballot.

Lula, the Workers' party incumbent, attributed his comeback to a focused digital strategy and a surge in voter turnout among lower-income groups. He noted that his campaign's digital reach overtook that of his rival for the first time, aided by his recent adoption of Instagram and TikTok.

The Bolsonaro campaign faced internal challenges, including allegations from the magazine Piauí that Flávio Bolsonaro attended a 2020 boat party with sex workers and vaccine lobbyists. These scandals coincided with reports from a dozen watchdog groups suggesting that Meta favored the Bolsonaro campaign on social media platforms.

President Donald Trump's influence also shaped the race. Although he did not formally endorse Flávio Bolsonaro, Trump previously called the trial of Jair Bolsonaro a witch hunt and imposed 50% tariffs on Brazilian imports. Lula positioned himself as a counterweight to these U.S. policies, pursuing a multilateral foreign policy that balances relations with the United States, China, and Russia.

The outcome has immediate implications for environmental policy. Under Lula's previous administrations, Amazon deforestation fell by more than 70%. However, he must now work with a newly elected congress that includes a record number of right-wing politicians who are often hostile to environmental protections.

Flávio Bolsonaro has refused to concede the election, citing the decision to extend voting hours by two hours. He described it as impossible to accept the result. Tom Phillips, a Latin America correspondent, noted that world leaders are already recognizing Lula's win and suggested that Flávio Bolsonaro may travel to the United States to avoid ongoing criminal investigations.

Lula turns 81 on Tuesday.