Israelis vote with no bloc projected to reach 61-seat majority

Voting opened at 7:00 a.m. on Tuesday across Israel as citizens cast ballots in the first Knesset election since the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his current coalition face off against the opposition bloc led by Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party.

Recent polling indicates a tight race with no clear path to power. The final Channel 12 poll released on Friday projected that the opposition bloc would secure 56 seats. Netanyahu’s bloc was projected to win 50 seats. Neither group reaches the 61-seat majority needed to form a government.

The poll showed Yashar party leading individual party counts with 22 seats. This figure exceeds the 19 seats projected for Netanyahu’s Likud party. Likud currently holds 32 seats in the outgoing Knesset, representing a significant drop. B’Yachad, led by former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, was projected to receive 14 seats.

Arab parties are projected to win a combined 16 seats in the election. Most opposition leaders have stated they will not form a coalition with these parties. They argue that such a partnership is unlikely to be viable given the recent security events.

Key issues driving voter decisions include the Israel Defense Forces manpower crisis following three years of war. Voters are also weighing contentious legislation regarding the conscription of haredi ultra-Orthodox men. Calls for a state commission of inquiry into government failures surrounding the October 7 attack remain central to the debate.

The fate of Netanyahu, who has led Israel for 19 non-consecutive years, is a major point of contention. The opposition bloc seeks to hold him accountable for the attacks. Traditional issues such as the establishment of a Palestinian state have moved to the background as most parties now agree against statehood.

Voter turnout will determine the threshold required for parties to enter the Knesset. The Taub Center estimates that at a 70% turnout rate, a party needs 165,635 votes to cross the 3.25% threshold. Higher turnout increases the required vote count, which could impact smaller parties.

Ofer Winter’s People of Israel party and Yoaz Hendel’s the Reservists-Economics party are fighting to clear this threshold. Their ability to enter the Knesset could affect the coalition-building capacity of both major blocs. Exit polls are expected at 10:00 p.m. to provide preliminary projections.

Police have deployed approximately 20,000 officers and volunteers to maintain order. Forces are positioned at thousands of polling stations and in surrounding areas. Police stated the goal is to safeguard the integrity of the elections and ensure the democratic process is conducted properly.